Can Champai, the ‘Kolhan Tiger’ eat into JMM vote bank?

Former Jharkhand chief minister and senior Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Champai Soren, who recently rebelled against his party’s leadership, declared on Wednesday that the Shibu Soren-led JMM is now a “closed chapter” for him as he prepares to embark on a new political journey.
With assembly elections in Jharkhand just two months away, Soren’s announcement has ignited a political buzz, prompting experts and politicians to speculate on how his next move could influence the electoral dynamics in the state.
Addressing his supporters who had gathered at Jillinggora, his ancestral village in Seraikela-Kharsawan district, Champai said he was open to launching a new party, and the situation would be clear in a week.
A six-term sitting legislator from Seraikela, Champai earned the tag of “Kolhan Tiger” due to his organisational work in the JMM and the resultant political influence he has enjoyed in the tribal-dominated Kolhan division of the state.
Located in the south-western part of Jharkhand, the Kolhan division is spread across the resource-rich and industrially developed districts of East Singhbhum (Jamshedpur), West Singhbhum and Seraikela-Kharsawan. The division has 14 constituencies in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly.
Champai, 67, was the third chief minister from the Kolhan division, after Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda. However, his political stature towers over the other two because of his roots in the movement for a separate Jharkhand state when he fought shoulder-to-shoulder with JMM supremo Shibu Soren.
And it is in this context that politicians and experts are weighing the impact Champai could have on electoral fortunes in the upcoming Assembly polls.
“It’s not that he is called Kolhan Tiger for nothing. While he worked under the watch of our tallest leader Shibu Soren, he is credited with having single-handedly built the organisational network in the Kolhan region. Even Guruji (Shibu Soren) would depend on Champai Da in matters related to Kolhan. Though executive president Hemant Soren has been in command of the party for the past few years, it will surely be a test for the present leadership to hold on to its cadre in the wake of this crisis,” a senior JMM leader said, requesting anonymity.
“It is difficult to predict the real impact he (Champai) would have as a rebel, as a lot can change in politics in two months. Hemant Soren is no doubt the most established tribal face in the state, but Kolhan has its ecosystem, and Champai’s four-decade-old career has the potential to put a dent. What would be the extent of it remains to be seen. It’s not easy to form a new front barely weeks ahead of the polls and emerge victorious. A lot will depend on what decision Champai takes, how effectively he plays the victim card, and how much we can mitigate it,” the leader added.
Traditionally, Kolhan, which has 1two Lok Sabha seats, has been a stronghold of the JMM and its ally Congress. Of the 14 assembly seats, nine are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST), while one is reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC).
In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM swept the region, winning 11 seats, including eight ST and one SC seat. Two seats, including one ST seat, went to the Congress, and the 14th seat was won by independent Saryu Roy, who defeated former chief minister Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur East, leaving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) empty-handed in Kolhan.
JMM leaders said Champai has had a strong influence on the tribal seats due to his organisational work and personal connection with people. “People often talk about the way he helped around 3,000 people till now to get jobs at different levels in Tata Group alone, besides others in other industrial units in the area. After his return from Delhi, he started touring the region, basically a show of strength. It’s good for us as well as it will help us assess the situation and make course corrections accordingly,” said a JMM leader, who also has roots in Kolhan.
The top JMM leadership has remained silent on Champai and his political moves, and party spokespersons have been very guarded in their responses.
JMM spokesperson Manoj Pandey said that while Champai is a respected leader, his exit won’t make much of an impact. “This is Guruji’s party. The history of our party shows that what matters in the JMM is our symbol, the bow and arrow. Some very senior leaders of the party had quit and contested elections on other symbols, but they failed and ultimately returned to the party fold,” Pandey said.
The opposition BJP, expectedly, has dismissed allegations that they are behind the present crisis. However, party insiders are excited about the development as they think it improves their chances in the Kolhan region, including in some ST seats.
A senior BJP leader said that while the result was 14-0 for the saffron party in Kolhan in 2019, things are set to change. “In 2019, the BJP-All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) alliance broke. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatrantrik (JVM-P) led by Babulal Marandi was also contesting separately. This time, there is no JVM, and AJSU is back in the NDA fold. The Champai factor is only going to dent the INDIA bloc further. Take, for example, Chakradharpur, which is an ST seat. The JMM defeated the BJP here by around 12,000 votes. On the other hand, AJSU and JVM candidates together got 34,000 votes,” said the BJP leader, who asked not to be named.
“In Jaganathpur, the Congress defeated the JVM candidate by around 12,000 votes, and the BJP and AJSU together received almost similar votes to the victorious Congress candidate. In Jugsalai, BJP lost to JMM by around 22,000 votes, while the AJSU candidate got around 47,000 votes. While the NDA gets stronger this time around, the Champai Soren factor is going to dent the INDIA alliance. Even if he dents around 5,000 to 10,000 votes in different Assembly seats, it could change the dynamics in several seats, helping the BJP in the process,” the leader added.
An independent political observer, Sudhir Pal, said Champai Soren’s departure could hit the INDIA alliance more if he decides to form his front.
“I don’t think the BJP has much to gain if he joins them because of the visible lack of trust among the tribals for it. At best, he can win his seat or help them in one or two other seats. But if he forms his party, he can play the victim card and dent INDIA bloc votes, which could prove crucial in a tight contest. All votes that Champai’s party gets would be at the cost of JMM,” said Sudhir Pal.